Bootstrapping is a nonparametric approach for making statistical estimation and inference when standard parametric assumptions are questionable, or computationally infeasible.

 

Applying this process to insurance allows estimates to be made of the distribution of most values of interest: future claims, capital, profit, and market returns. Two important sources of uncertainty in the projected values can be taken into account: for instance, the intrinsic volatility of the claims process, and the uncertainty in our parameter estimates of that process.

 

There are various approaches to constructing confidence intervals with this estimated sampling distribution that can be then used to make statistical inferences. More accurate standard errors, confidence intervals, and even hypothesis tests for more complex samples can be derived using bootstrapping methods.

 

Bootstrapping method can also be applied to the work in the areas of life insurance, pensions or annuities such as addressing the challenges due to longevity risk. Not only for insurance companies, but this issue is also important for such things as demographic planning as well.

 

In measuring longevity risk, it is important to be able to quantify the uncertainty in mortality projections through the computation of prediction intervals. For actuarial pricing and reserving purposes, the mortality table will need to be projected to allow for improvement in mortality to be taken into account and sometimes that mortality development can be challenging to predict.

 

Rather than making assumptions about the sampling distribution of a statistic, bootstrapping uses the variability within a sample to estimate that sampling distribution empirically. This is done by randomly resampling with replacement from the sample many times in a way that models the original data generation process.

 

We have invited Dr. Frank Ashe, who has more than 30 years of business experience predominantly in risk management, investments and behavioral finance, to conduct a one-day hands-on workshop to show you how to use bootstrapping method to estimate capital and reserves when the usual methods for ascertaining statistical significance do not apply.  Dr Ashe’s first use of this method for insurance reserves was in the early 1980’s. Dr Ashe will also show you how the bootstrap allows you to see the distribution of possible mortality rate for future years, based on cohorts, and to estimate the effect of increasing life expectancy on the value of pensions.

KEY LEARNING OUTCOMES

 

  • Understand the reasons why the bootstrap is being adopted in business modelling.

  • Understand the approach underlying the bootstrap implementation, implicit assumptions, and appropriateness to a particular problem.

  • Learn to know when to use the bootstrap method.

  • Be able to undertake a bootstrap process for estimating reserves, and as part of an ORSA/ICAAP.

  • Able to explain to stakeholders why using bootstrapping is a necessary tool in your work.

WORKSHOP SCHEDULE

Each session in the workshop will focus on a different application of the technique:

Investment Returns, General Insurance, Life Insurance & Capital Adequacy.

 

0845

Registration

 

0900 – 1030

Basics
– What is the bootstrap?
– Why was it developed?
– Variations of the technique including block bootstrap.
– Example using time series of market returns.

 

1030 – 1045 

Coffee/ Tea Break



1045 – 1230

Estimating Reserves
– A quick review of the basic triangle of paid claims, and techniques for reserve estimation.
– Stepping through the bootstrap process, demonstrating changes required for different models of the claims process.
– Analysis of outputs (there is more information than just the reserve value!)


1230 – 1400

Lunch

 

1400 – 1530

A Little Theory and Parameter Error
– What justification is there for using the bootstrap?
– When can you use it?
– What is parameter error?
– Estimating the effect of future mortality risk on reserves & pricing.
– Incorporating parameter error into the estimate of reserves.
– Bonus! You now have a pricing tool!



1530 – 1545

Coffee/ Tea Break 

 

1545 – 1700

Model risk, Capital Requirements, and Communication
– Which is the correct model to use for claims estimation?
– What if you can’t decide which model is best?
– Estimating capital requirements – simple model.
– Communication of the results to the Board and regulator.

 

1700

End of Workshop

WORKSHOP DETAILS

Date

28 August 2018, Tuesday

 

Time

0845 – 1700

 

Location

Hotel Istana

73, Jalan Raja Chulan, Bukit Bintang, 50200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Registration Fee

Early Bird*

Regular

MYR  1,290

per participant

MYR 2,580

per participant

* Early bird rate offer is valid until 7 August 2018 only. 

Closing Registration Date

21 August 2018

Workshop Format

The workshop will be a mixture of lectures and hands-on exercises. Participants are required to bring their laptops to the workshop.

SPEAKER PROFILE

Dr Frank Ashe

Founder, Quantitative Strategies Pty Ltd

Dr Frank Ashe has a consulting practice specialising in risk management, investments and behavioural finance. Risk management covers the gamut from technical matters in option risk, to strategy, to comparative corporate governance and risk culture. He is an Honorary Associate Professorship at the Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre where he spent 2002 to 2006 as a full-time Associate Professor.

Dr Ashe has worked in consultancies, insurers, investment management firms, bond dealers, and financial software houses in Australia and Canada. His 30+ years of practical experience have been predominantly in the measurement and management of financial risk and return, with an emphasis on asset-liability management and developing risk measurement and management tools for novel situations.

Dr Ashe has been presenting the 2-day course required for CERA qualification by the Actuaries Institute (Australia) since 2010. He is a regular presenter at industry seminars and colloquia through Asia, teaches financial risk management in East Asia and was President of the Australian Q-Group from 2002 to 2011.

Dr Ashe obtained his PhD in Operations Research from the University of New South Wales.

ENQUIRIES

Penny Cheok

learn@AP Consultant

penny.cheok@actuarialpartners.com

+603-21610433 ext 204

Led by professional with more than 30 years of experience

Practical & Relevant

Hands-on Exercises

Networking Opportunity with Fellow Professionals

Who Should Attend

  • This programme is suitable for actuarial & risk management professionals wanting to learn more about stochastic bootstrapping methods, particularly for estimating capital and reserves as well as estimating mortality risk.

  • Suitable also for managers of quantitative staff, risk committee members, auditors, researchers and regulators.

In-house Training

If you are looking for an in-house training program, kindly send your request of proposal to learn@actuarialpartners.com

Download workshop brochure (.pdf):

Registration Form - Bootstrapping Method for Capital & Reserves Estimates
Registration is on a first come first serve basis, the capacity of this workshop is 24 participants. We will issue an invoice upon receipt of your registration form and payment shall be due before the workshop. We shall reserve the right to decline entry for registered but unpaid participants. Should the workshop be cancelled for any unforeseen circumstances, we shall endeavor to reschedule the workshop or refund the workshop fees. Registration fee includes participation in the workshop plus all tea breaks, lunches and workshop documents. For cancellation in writing made at least 5 working days before the closing registration date, the workshop fees may be refunded or the entire amount may be used as credit for any future learn@AP events. Substitutes may be nominated.